Long term oil demand outlook
As a physical trader of energy, Vitol has long monitored and forecast demand for crude oil and products.
In the 12 months since we first published our views on the long term outlook for oil demand, we have seen significant shifts in policy and some economic fundamentals. This report presents our updated outlook
Long term oil demand outlook - Executive summary
Other key changes include:
Demand in 2040 is expected to be 5 million bpd higher than today. Minimal decline during the latter part of the next decade does not reverse the continued year-on-year increase in oil use over the next few years.
Gasoline and gasoil demand begins to moderate and is anticipated to fall as the electrification of road transport continues and gasoil use in other sectors declines.
Road transport fuels – representing roughly half of the barrel today – remain the primary determinant of the global oil demand trajectory. Slower near-term passenger car EV uptake in the US and parts of Asia is only partly counterbalanced by faster adoption in emerging markets and a more constructive outlook for electric heavy commercial vehicles (eHCVs). This has moderated the expected decline in demand versus last year’s base case and underpins our February 2026 outlook.
In the absence of any disruptive technologies over the forecast horizon, jet fuel and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) demand (for residential and commercial use and petrochemical feedstocks) are expected to continue to rise.
This report outlines our view on future oil demand and the factors that may affect it. We take into account current sectoral trends including factors we think are likely to influence the availability and adoption of sustainable solutions. Our aim is to present a realistic view based on the data available without inherent bias.
We look over a 15-year horizon to 2040 because this ties in roughly with technological cycles and broadly matches vehicle fleet turnover patterns. Beyond 15 years, it is harder to anticipate how influencing factors will evolve, leading to higher levels of uncertainty.
Our caveat remains that, if EV adoption stalls and policy targets continue to be deferred, road transport fuel demand in 2040 could exceed current projections. Similar sensitivities apply across the barrel: outcomes may be higher or lower depending on policy implementation, the pace of technology adoption, regional macroeconomic performance, and the balance between supply additions and demand growth. Overall, the upside forecast risk is greater for oil road demand, while oil burn and petrochemical derivatives face a greater downside risk.
The profile of the barrel will likely shift as demand for gasoline and gasoil begins to fall.
The long term oil demand outlook report includes Vitol’s views on and forecasts of both historical levels and projections of future energy demand, supply, and trends based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from a variety of external sources. The report contains forward looking statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates and assumptions of future behaviours. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy, and emissions and plans to reduce emissions) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes, trade patterns, the development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, changes in consumer preferences, and various other factors. The report was published in February 2026. Vitol assumes no duty to update these statements or materials as of any future date, and neither future distribution of this material nor the continued availability of this material in archive form on our website should be deemed to constitute an update or re-affirmation of this material as of any future date. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Vitol. All rights reserved.
